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Hence, if the samples are taken sufficiently apart in time so that they are roughly independent, Chebyshev's inequality implies that (4ε2 -1 samples would be enough to estimate each probability within an error margin of ε, with probability at least max 0, 1-ε).
Fig. 8 A 2D margin of the recording probability function from the 'Japan, Taiwan, Marianas' region at around 1600 CE (see Fig. 4).
Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo told me, half-jokingly, that he exists in the error margin of the world of probabilities.
After we factor out Centrebet's profit margin, the probability of an ALP win implied by these prices is 33.6%.
All else equal (i.e., margin), the probability of a "Yes" response is expected to vary inversely with the premium cost.
"Media understanding about probability, margin of error and uncertainty is very poor," Silver said Monday afternoon when I stopped by the Manhattan office of his FiveThirtyEight.com for a pre-election chat.
The margin of error for a probability sample of 2,500 is ± 1.96%, and 250 is ± 6.2%199 times out of 20.
Margin of apple orchard.
Margin of rocky seepage.
Margin of Exposure.
Just a few days ago, I moderated a webinar with four leading researchers and statisticians to discuss the use of margin of error with non-probability samples.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com