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The first is a slump in turnout.
But the count showed no significant growth in turnout.
So it would seem that trends in turnout could hardly explain the increase in polarization.
The difference in turnout will reflect the effectiveness of the intervention.
What the polls failed to predict was a massive bump in turnout.
New York and New Jersey show sharp declines in turnout from 2008.
Among the battleground states, only Ohio and Pennsylvania report a material decline in turnout.
They did, but it had mostly to do with changes in turnout.
That difference in turnout was a significant factor in another disparity: the down-ballot results.
Something similar may explain the uptick in turnout in Hidalgo County, in the Rio Grande Valley.
Those Republican victories were rooted in turnout as much as voter persuasion.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com