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A slight positive genetic trend was observed for LS in all breeds.
Using Monte-Carlo simulations, prediction of genetic trend is shown to be in close relation with CD1.
Predictions were compared by truncating 4 yr of data, and genetic trend validation was applied to all breed trait combinations.
However, in terms of the selection response, the two designs are equivalent when genetic trend was below 0.5σa, which is always the case in animal breeding programs.
A genetic trend analysis based on BLUP breeding values estimated across generations after the termination of the project suggested an accumulated response of 67%.
CD1 appears to be a good indicator of the robustness of the design and a measure of the part of genetic trend that can be predicted.
The aim of this paper is to address the robustness of genetic evaluation, in terms of the prediction of genetic trend and selection responses, when this assumption is violated.
According to the number of progeny recorded per sire, the repeater sire design only accounted for 3 to 12% of the genetic trend whereas the reference sire design accounted for 22 to 59% for a trait of h2=0.40.
The overall genetic trend since 1985 was positive at 0.02% twinning/yr, whereas the phenotypic trends were positive for parities 3 and 4 and negative for the other parities, but all trends were quite small.
Whilst the pedigree accounted for genetic trend, the fitting of a smoothing spline for day of birth protected against any confounding that might have been present.
A trend in year of evaluation reflects either procedural change, including personnel, or changes in risk factors, since pedigree inclusion has accounted for any genetic trend in the data.
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