For forecasts at the national scale, MAPE values (i.e. 8%, 5% and 9% for the three respective crops) were considerably smaller than the corresponding historical coefficients of variation (i.e. 17%, 10%and17%7% for the three crops).
For forecasts at the start of anthesis, the overall mean absolute error for yield (MAE, t ha−1 dry matter) was reduced by 0.24 (or in relative terms 27%) compared to the assumption of treatment-specific (site ∗ preceding crop) average yield.
For forecasts that need to be updated during the experimental phase, the submission of an executable code is indispensable to blind prospective testing.
For forecasts of TC intensity, current atmospheric models have typical biases: they are not able to reproduce rapid intensification, and TCs in the models continuously intensify even in the mid-latitude, where TCs begin to weaken, then resulting in overintensification.
It is common for the ensemble spread to be too small to include the weather that actually occurs, which can lead to forecasters misdiagnosing model uncertainty; this problem becomes particularly severe for forecasts of the weather about ten days in advance.
That won't persist indefinitely and we fear for forecasts.
The end-point for forecasts will be pushed out from two to three years hence.
So there's a lot of scope for forecasts in the S2S range.
The developed model makes use of available data and can be used as a basis for forecasts.
Until now, this method has been applied only in a small number of cases, generally for forecasts in hindsight.
Because of increased competition between water uses, the demand for forecasts of low-flow periods is rising.
