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"Unfazed by this turnaround," notes Mr. Peterson, "the Bush administration proposed a second tax-cut package in 2003 in the face of huge new fiscal demands, including a war in Iraq and an urgent 'homeland security' agenda". Result: now the 10-year fiscal projection is for a $4 trillion deficit.
In a new fiscal projection, Fitch said at least $3.5 trillion of additional deficit reduction measures will be required to stabilize the federal debt held by the public at around 90percentt of gross domestic product in the latter half of the current decade.
Given the recent tax hike and sequester cuts, my guess is that this June's Alternative Fiscal Projection will look better, that the fiscal gap will fall to $200 trillion, and that we'll be short, on an ongoing basis, not 12percentt of GDP, but 11percentt of GDP.
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Some background: Long-term fiscal projections for the United States paint a grim picture.
First, fiscal projections are notoriously unreliable, as the Treasury itself admits.
Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte, said the fiscal projections were "highly vulnerable" to any slippage in economic growth.
In particular, the fiscal projections rest on very optimistic assumptions for revenues from tax avoidance measures and savings from the welfare budget.
Even if the most optimistic fiscal projections prove true, the surplus will be gone within 20 years, leaving the government -- and, by extension, taxpayers -- facing intense financial pressure.
But Democrats have their own issues; including defending their use of some of the same questionable fiscal projections relied on by the White House.
To deflect such perceptions, Mr. Gore included in his glossy, 191-page plan a pledge to set aside $300 billion as a hedge against overly optimistic fiscal projections.
The administration's optimism is evident not only in its talk but also in its fiscal projections, which one budget watchdog has called unreasonably rosy.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com