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Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the link between concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and eventual global average tempera- tures, has been persistently and perhaps deeply uncertain.
Equilibrium climate sensitivity is a measure used to estimate how Earth's surface temperature ultimately responds to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
Equilibrium climate sensitivity and its standard deviation (SD) are similar but slightly less than those of ESMs.
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is a key index for understanding the Earth's climate history and prediction of future climate changes.
Potentially Large Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Tail Uncertainty.
Moreover, other lines of evidence contradict an equilibrium climate sensitivity lower than 2C.
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While predicted equilibrium climates from three climate models (MIT 2D, GISS and GFDL GCMs) have been used in both cases, predicted soil organic carbon from terrestrial ecocystem model (TEM, Melillo et al., 1993) have been used in the "doubled-CO2" case and CLIMAP data (1981) have been used in the "ice age" case.
The observed range of a species reflects multiple determinants, including climatic tolerances, biotic interactions, equilibrium with climate and dispersal limitation.
Because it would take decades to centuries for the Earth to reach a new energy balance, climate scientists have estimated an eventual 2 4.5°C warming from doubled atmospheric carbon (this is 'equilibrium climate sensitivity').
Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions.
See Jared Woollacott, "The Economic Costs and Co-benefits of Carbon Taxation: A General Equilibrium Assessment," Climate Change Economics 9, no. 1 (2018): 1840006, https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007818400067. Ross (2018) estimates the effects on GDP in 2030 of 10 US regions for a carbon tax that starts at $25 per ton and increases at 5percentt per year.
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