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So Sandy went for Todd May, the alternative candidate, a business forecaster and econometrician with unimpeachable credentials.
Paul R. Kutasovic, Professor of Finance at New York Institute of Technology and business forecaster, is one of them.
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In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, "weather prophets," business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future.
Most private business forecasters look at the American economy, they see the economy growing between 2 percent and 3 percent.
This shouldn't be cause for surprise, but it is -- because the great majority of business forecasters have become cheerleaders.
Only one of the 32 business forecasters surveyed expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the next few months.Unfortunately, this optimism does not seem to be widely shared.
Bear in mind that business forecasters are under enormous pressure to be cheerleaders: "I must confess to being amazed at the venom my double dip call still elicits," Mr. Roach wrote yesterday at cbsmarketwatch.com.
Morgan Stanley's Stephen S. Roach -- who was a lonely skeptic in the days of Nasdaq 5,000 and is now one of the few business forecasters with the courage to defy the orthodoxy -- signs his e-mails to me "From the wilderness".
After the release of the jobs report, the first thought of many business forecasters was of the Federal Reserve, and what the data might suggest for its next move in September, when analysts believe it probably will begin tapering its stimulus measures known as quantitative easing.
Top business forecasters predicted decades of double-digit unemployment and virtually permanent recession.
In a parallel universe, there's probably a David Gregory of Substance who reads newspapers and rigorous policy analysis who's reporting today that business forecasters are very bullish on the stimulus.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com