"There might be some minority stakes purchased, but I don't think you'll see majority stakes," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, the chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour, a Hong Kong securities firm.
If no anomalies are detected, BETEF_CF provides the background monthly probability of eruption at CFc (Figure 1C).
In Figure 4 we show a retrospective application of the BETEF_CF code to track the unrest evolution at CFc in the period 1981-2010.
It is therefore remarkable that the elicitation process produced a clear and consistent picture of the expected dynamics that might lead to a possible eruption at CFc.
The applicability BETEF_CF is then demonstrated with a retrospective analysis of the observed unrest dynamics at CFc in the period 1981-2010.
With such a purpose, we have set up a real-time tool for short-term eruption forecasting at CFc (BETEF_CF; see Figure 1A).
During the five expert meetings, the quantitative definition of monitoring parameters, and their availability in real-time from the monitoring network at CFc, were carefully considered.
However, past pre-eruptive data at CFc are not available, with the exception of the descriptive, macroscopic observations reported in the chronicles related to the 1538 eruption (Guidoboni and Ciucciarelli 2011).
Some initial inconsistent definitions of parameters and thresholds were removed through time (e.g., Presence of CLVD, since the present resources at CFc do not allow its real-time assessment).
This reflects (i) the decrease in confidence of experts (there is previous instrumental experience of unrest episodes at CFc, while that experience is missing for pre-eruptive phases), and (ii) the global experience suggesting that an eruption at a long-dormant volcano is usually preceded by macroscopic (easily visible) escalation of phenomena.
