Exact(46)
He described the Japanese quake as a "low probability, high consequence" event.
Possible changes include redefining "high consequence areas," in which more frequent surveillance and inspection is required.
The four most immediate "high consequence" risks all concerned flooding, with the expectation that in 10 years or so there will be increased flood damage to homes, with knock-on effects on insurance premiums and mental health.
Until recently, we humans did not pay heed to these shots across the bow but now, I think, there is more of a recognition of this low probability — but high consequence — type of event".
And people in rural areas like eastern Montana say they also know that the dry and mostly empty ranchlands where they live are not, and never have been, places of high consequence.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission needs to rewrite its standards to address what it considers "high consequence" events in view of last year's nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan, the commission's director said Tuesday.
Similar(11)
But even those self-policing plans are only mandated for lines that could affect high-consequence areas.
As I mentioned last week, Robert Socolow has contributed "High-consequence outcomes and internal disagreements: tell us more, please".
It's also hard to gauge, with low-probability, high-consequence events like a NEO strike, whether it's more appropriate to be paranoid or blasé.
Together, they are on alert for what they sometimes call "low-probability-but-high-consequence events", and sometimes – when they forget to be reassuring – "catastrophe".
To appreciate the challenge we face, it is important to remember that the Sept. 11 terrorist attack was a classic "low-probability, high-consequence" event.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com